Saturday, August 6, 2011

The first time U.S. faces threat of downgrades

Moody's Investors Service said, the U.S. debt rating will likely be lowered for the first time. There are several reasons that underlie it, such as the inability to resolve the debt until the slowdown in economic growth.

According to Moody's, the credit rating of Aaa is pinned to the United States since 1917, when this has changed with a negative outlook. Previously, on 29 July, Moody's warned that a negative outlook on the U.S. is very possible as government measures to reduce the amount of the budget cuts being negotiated to win Congressional approval for the plan to increase the U.S. debt ceiling.

There are several threats if the decline in the U.S. credit rating done. One of them, it would hit the global financial system. In fact, JPMorgan Chase & Co. estimates, downgrades debt will push up borrowing costs in the U.S. amounted to U.S. $ 100 billion per year. It can also hit the entire U.S. economy with an increase in interest home loans, car loans and other closely related to interest rates.

"The decline in ranking is a sign that Congress failed to solve the real fiscal issues," said Guy LeBas, chief fixed-income strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott LLC in Philadelphia.

Monday, August 1, 2011

The U.S. Congress increase the debt limit of U.S. $ 2.1 trillion

WASHINGTON. The U.S. Congress finally agreed to raise the U.S. debt limit of U.S. $ 2.1 trillion. In addition, the congress also agreed to slash the state budget of U.S. $ 2.4 trillion or more. This deal reached a day before the deadline threat of default occurs.

The results of the U.S. Congress voted 269-161 to pass the comparison shows the proposed congressional leaders and President Barack Obama. About 95 Democratic votes to support the debt limit increase, and 66 Republican opposed it. The results of this vote will go to the Senate for final vote and then be done today (3 / 8).

"We are facing deadlines that we must be cautious, default. Both parties should be able to resolve this mess. Both parties must work together to get out of this problem," said Representative Paul Ryan, Wisconsin Republican and chairman of the Budget Committee.

Ryan said the budget cuts associated with the increase in U.S. debt limit is a very big cultural change for the U.S. Congress.

Sunday, July 31, 2011

Republicans and Democrats agreed to raise the U.S. debt ceiling

WASHINGTON. President of the United States (U.S.), Barack Obama said Republican and Democratic party leaders have reached an agreement to raise the national debt ceiling limit and avoid default and the deficit.
Obama said the deal would cut its spending of U.S. $ 1 trillion within the next ten years. In this deal they also will form a committee in November will be reported spending deficit reduction proposal.
Congress still has not approved the deal. "I would like to announce that the leaders of the two parties have reached an agreement that would reduce the deficit and avoiding a failure, a default can have an impact on the destruction of our economy," Obama said.
Both Democrats and Republicans on Tuesday faced with a deadline to raise the debt ceiling limit of up to U.S. $ 14.3 trillion.
Earlier U.S. Treasury Department warned the government would run out of money to pay the entire bill payment, unless the government's debt ceiling be raised no later than Tuesday.
Canvass
In a debate late last week had appeared a number of proposals and plans. U.S. House Speaker John Boehner for example, proposed U.S. budget deficit will be reduced as much as U.S. $ 917 billion in a span of 10 years, and the national debt ceiling was increased to U.S. $ 900 billion.
But President Barack Obama supports other plans proposed by the Senate Democratic leader, Harry Reid. According to Reid's plan, the U.S. budget deficit will be reduced U.S. $ 2.2 trillion and raised the loan ceiling of U.S. $ 2.7 trillion.
Boehner and Reid plans assessed showed some similarities in several aspects, namely the reduction of spending for 10 years, moving away from tax increases on the wealthy as it is called by President Obama and establish a special committee to devise spending cuts in the future.
But the debate has finally ended after an agreement is reached between the Republican and Democratic leaders. "It's not the greatest deal in the world but it shows how we have changed the terms of debate here," he added.
Obama plans to deliver the deal before Congress on Monday afternoon local time. He asked that those who are Democrats and Republicans support this plan.

Saturday, July 30, 2011

Swiss Central Bank lost billions of francs due to currency strengthening

ZURICH. Swiss National Bank (SNB) suffered losses of up to 9.9 billion francs in foreign currency holdings during the first semester of 2011. Losses caused by the performance of the Swiss franc continues to strengthen because many investors chasing low-risk assets.

This loss makes the market expecting the increased potential for criticism of the SNB if the central bank chose to intervene. Safe-haven Switzerland has gained about 14% against the U.S. dollar and 7% against the euro since the beginning of the year. This reduces the value of foreign currency holdings accumulated SNB between March 2009 and June 2010 when it intervened to restrain the strengthening of the franc.

SNB also recorded a loss of about 10.8 billion during the first semester as a consequence of decrease in gold holdings are stated in Swiss francs. Information alone, the Swiss franc continues to print a new record high levels against the dollar and euro both in recent months. This makes analysts wonder whether the SNB was able to intervene in the market.

This week, a number of Swiss economic data will be released. Among these are the retail sales data, PMI and CPI. If these data provide indications of economic improvement, it will reduce investor fears of worsening global economic conditions.

Friday, July 29, 2011

Moody's Will Cut U.S Debt Rating

NEW YORK. Moody's Investors Service cut its debt rating will likely be government of the United States (U.S.). Moody's said it would review its ratings of U.S. government debt at Aaa level, to the possibility of lowered. Unless there is progress in increasing the debt limit by mid-July.

These rating agencies assess, the increased polarization over the debt limit has increased the likelihood of default in record time. "If this situation remains unchanged in the coming weeks, Moody's will review the U.S. rankings," said Moody's, in a report today.

Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner warned failure to raise the debt ceiling on August 2, probably negative effect on the U.S. economy with a sharp rise in borrowing costs. On that date he projected borrowing authority will be exhausted.

However, Geithner today predicts will reach an agreement in an effort to avoid a crisis in default and long-term fiscal plan.

Meanwhile, Speaker of the House Republican John Boehner using Moody's statement to underline his party's position, which is any agreement on the debt ceiling increase of U.S. $ 14.3 trillion must be accompanied by a plan to reduce the budget deficit. "Increasing the debt limit without a large expenditure cuts would threaten the economy," Boehner said.

In April, Standard & Poor's said the U.S. government at risk of losing AAA debt rating, except for policy makers in 2013 approved a plan to reduce the budget deficit and national debt.

U.S. government bond yields 10-year rise of 3.01% to 3.03%, at 5 pm in New York.

Thursday, July 28, 2011

The Fed Warned the U.S. Debt Risks

WASHINGTON. Ben Bernanke, Governor of Central Bank of the United States (U.S.) Federal Reserve, warned of the threat of U.S. debt ceiling. Within Bernanke, the U.S. could lose the AAA credit rating if Congress does not decide an increase in U.S. debt ceiling. If nothing is agreed until this August, the U.S. began to fall in default.

Bernanke said that further delay by the U.S. government in deciding policy could trigger turmoil in global financial markets. The U.S. government is currently running a budget deficit with a value of U.S. $ 1.5 trillion.

Earlier, U.S. Vice President Joe Bidden and leaders of Congress had resumed steps to take bipartite solution. They attempt to reach an agreement that will bind to spending cuts by the addition of the debt limit.

They hope to discuss the level of annual expenditure, budget reform, tax and health insurance benefits. "We note the real progress, we now begin to move into the issues of weight and everyone still survive," said Biden.

IMF Trim U.S. Economic Growth Projection

SAN PAULO. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its U.S. growth forecasts. Donor agencies also warned the United States and European countries are in debt to take immediate steps resolve its budget deficit.

In its report, the IMF expects economic growth in the United States this year only by 2.5% and 2.7% next year. In fact, two months earlier, the agency is projecting growth of borrowers Uwak Affairs Sam by 2.8% this year and 2.9% next year.

The IMF revised its economic growth because of the threat to the United States compared to the growing conditions two months ago. Director of the IMF Monetary and Capital Markets said Jose Vinals, political debate in the United States about the debt limit has raised fears the country defaulted. "We very clearly are entering a new phase of global crisis. I call this phase of political crisis," he said on Friday (17 / 6).

In addition, the IMF also said the debt crisis of the European countries and the signs of the economy in emerging market countries that started overheating (overheating) as a threat to global economic growth. The IMF said the disagreement EU leaders on the second aid package for the Greek gods have pushed the country into a state of default.

The condition worsened with the situation in the country of Greece. Just so you know, Greece lately hit by protests and a massive strike.

U.S. Failed to Pay and Gold

Market participants are very concerned and began to worry no agreement is reached among the U.S. politicians. The threat of default in the U.S. is getting closer. But, how exactly to do with the price of precious metals?
Julian Phillips, an analyst with GoldForecaster, trying to link the two. It must be remembered, not the center of U.S. gold consumer. In fact, the consumption of jewelry, gold bars and gold coins across North America is only 8 percent of global consumption. Europe and Russia occupy the portion of 13 percent. The rest are in developing countries, especially China and India.
Developing countries is responsible for the distribution network and global gold markets. Physical gold supply largely brought to London and the bank storage of gold.
The gold was shipped from the processing of gold processing gold and silver. They get the goods from the mines. Then gold depositary bank generally through London GoldFix and give his gold to investors, manufacturing, industrial, and central banks.
Not only that, developing countries are also forming gold speculators and traders who constantly buying physical gold, gold stocks in the form of mutual funds exchange traded fund, or a derivative financial instrument that could affect the price of gold.
The rise in gold prices lately totally unrelated to the fundamentals of silver and gold. The increase was triggered by fears shook the financial world and the declining U.S. dollar exchange rate. Precious metals are used as a means to counter those risks.
The increase in the price of gold and silver actually reflects the uncertainty and instability in the foreign exchange market and the decline of paper currency. The main impact of the event of default if it is true in the U.S. is that it will menguncangkan monetary system in developed countries. Chances are it increasingly made investors look for alternative long-term investment.
Damage to the monetary system was not easily repaired. One of the consequences will be no acceleration of the internationalization of the Chinese yuan that China will be able to reduce the vulnerability and dependence on the U.S. dollar internationally.
Another consequence is going to happen divesifikasi national asset in the long run. Unlike this time, too many assets are placed in U.S. dollars and U.S. government bonds.
Another consequence is global stagflation, global economic fragmentation that might lead to protectionism. Still prolonged conversation about the debt ceiling in Washington have made a sagging U.S. dollar exchange rate against other strong currencies like the yen and euro. It was the first impact is most felt.
Furthermore, countries that do not bear the strengthening of their currencies as the Japanese yen will conduct a series of actions. Earlier this year, the Japanese central bank intervened to weaken the yen market. The strengthening yen is not beneficial to the exporting country because the price of their goods to be expensive.
Similarly, the Swiss franc. If default does occur, other impact is the interest rate the U.S. government bonds because bondholders assess the risk becomes higher.
The increase in interest rates would disrupt the stock market, housing market, and ultimately the economy as a whole. This is exacerbated by high energy prices and food, is equipped with a high unemployment rate, thus making the weak economy.
Assets whose value continues skyrocketed in such circumstances is an asset that can serve as cash and assets. His name is precious metals. Precious metals demand from developing countries that continue to rise will make the price of precious metals continue to rise to a new level because the world is looking for new balance.
Internationally, the precious metal deposits will be controlled asset, not only is it important. The price will then be closely related to the total volume of each foreign currency in the world.
As envisioned, the price of precious metals, including gold, will be higher than original estimates. With the gold market is still very small in terms of volume, the silver will be a monetary metal, too, certainly at a high price.

Australian Central Bank Will Intervene

MELBOURNE. Australia inflationary pressures in the second quarter increased to 0.9%. This figure exceeds the forecast of economists surveyed once only at the level of 0.7%. This condition allay concerns that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will cut interest rates later this year at least. Last weekend, an analyst at Westpac predicts the RBA will start to cut interest rates later this year at least.

But now, with rising inflation pressures outside estimates, many analysts are predicting the RBA will raise interest rates in the trial this September. This contrasts with a projected interbank futures market at the end of last week forecast the RBA will cut interest rates later this year at least with respect to increasing concern conditions of the EU and the U.S. debt.

Australian finance minister Wayne Swan confirmed that it will make efforts to intervene to restrain the continued strengthening of the dollar Australian dollar reached its highest level in history.

Swan believes that the market has its own mechanism to determine the current level of aussie dollar. Swan's comments are a response to employers who are members of the Australian Industry Group that the rise in the Australian dollar exchange rate of late has a negative impact on tourism and manufacturing business sectors.

Wednesday, July 27, 2011

Soros hedge fund career ended after more than four decades

NEW YORK. World-class billionaire, George Soros will end his career as a hedge fund manager this year. Soros will return the entire fund investors outside the company. Currently, the total assets held by Soros Fund Management LLC to reach U.S. $ 25.5 billion.
Soros is 81 years old next month, has decided to focus manage the assets of a company owned by his family alone. Later this year at least Soros will give money to the investors of less than U.S. $ 1 billion. This major decision came after Soros managed to become the investment manager more than four decades.
Through a letter signed by the son of Jonathan and Robert Soros who is vice chairman of the Soros Fund Management LLC, thank you for the trust placed by investors. "We thank you for selecting an investment institution is more than 40 years," the statement letter.
This step is completing the transformation from a speculator Soros became a statesman and philanthropist. Just a reminder, in 1992, Soros had trouble with the Bank of England because of bet with funds amounting to U.S. $ 1 billion and the impact on the devaluation of sterling. Soros is an immigrant from Hungary and studied at the London School of Economics after World War II.
In the last 30 years, Soros has poured funds of about U.S. $ 8 billion to fly the flag of democracy, freedom of speech, to improve education and fight poverty around the world.
Soros's son said the decision manage family assets are also in accordance with new financial regulations in which the investment firm that manages the funds of others are required to report to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) prior to March 2012. The decision was also taken with the reason the company has many assets to manage the family since 2000.
The new rules will also be more stringent in which hedge funds with total assets of over U.S. $ 150 million is required to report information about the investors, employees and managed assets in which the potential conflict of interest would be enormous. Managed funds that are listed will also be subject to periodic inspection ole SEC.

Oil prices rose, oil services company's performance skyrocketed

HOUSTON. World oil services companies also sprayed a profit on rising crude oil prices. Some of these world-class companies snapper managed to record an increase of performance. One is a company Schlumberger Ltd. is the world's largest oil services.

Company based in Houston and Paris is achieved profit growth in first half of 2011 to 64% to U.S. $ 1.34 billion, or 98 cents per share from the same period last year of U.S. $ 818 million, equivalent to 68 cents per share.

Stock gains 2 cents higher than the estimate of 33 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. The rise of profits sustained by the Schlumberger revenues jumped by 62% to U.S. $ 9.62 billion.

Not only Schlumberger, oil companies world-class services that others are also experiencing the same thing. Halliburton Co., the largest oil service company ranked second in the world managed to record a good performance in the second quarter of 2011. In year on year (yoy), net income was U.S. companies surged by 54%.

Profits rose to U.S. $ 738 million, or 80 cents per share from the previous U.S. $ 480 million, equivalent to 53 cents per share. The value of sales in this period rose 35% to U.S. $ 5.94 billion. This performance is apparently above the average of 35 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

The increase in performance was also contributed by increasing the number of active oil fields. The average number of active oil fields and gas rigs around the world rose to 3163 in the second quarter, up 15% from 2762 in the previous year.

"Overall, this performance demonstrates the power of oil services company that is needed by oil producers," said Brian Youngberg, an analyst with Edward Jones in St. Louis.

This performance is also not free from rising world oil prices caused by the conflict in the Middle East and North Africa.

Japan began to worry over one way direction of yen movement

TOKYO. Japan began to concern with the strengthening of the yen continues to strengthen. Japanese Finance Minister, Yoshihiko Noda again warned about the development of currency exchange rate moves in one direction lately. Other ministers also agreed on the warning issued, there are some risks to be faced yen when the currency was moving too high and too fast.

However, the market has not foresee any intervention by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) in the near future. Hidetoshi Kemezaki BoJ members also expressed dismay that the BoJ will be the impact of the impasse in reaching an agreement the U.S. government's debt ceiling on the Japanese financial system.

These conditions have prompted the market to predict the possibility of BoJ easing back ultra-loose policy if prospects for economic recovery of Japan is constrained by U.S. and European debt problems.

Information only, U.S. dollar sank to a four-month lows against the yen at 77.75 yen near record lows ever do 76.25 yen reached last March.